Negotiating Peace in Ukraine

Feb 3, 2023
3 min read

Updated: Jun 8

Updated on Jun 8, 2026 - Originally created on May 14, 2022

This post demonstrates a process that could lead to peace in Ukraine — not a prediction of any particular outcome. Working with friends including a group of Rotarians, the Smartsettle team built a simulation of the final stage of a multiparty negotiation. The two short videos below are the heart of it: they show how Smartsettle can help collaborative parties overcome obstacles and reach a solution that maximizes the satisfaction of all parties — in this case, peaceful co-existence.

Watch the simulation (new to Smartsettle Infinity? Start with the Ukrainian POV):

Ukraine Point of View (14 min) — as presented live at the 21st International ODR Forum, Dublin (May 2022)
Russia Point of View (7.5 min) — short version focusing on the simulation

What the videos demonstrate is not a particular outcome but a process that can harvest and fairly distribute significant hidden value. Our hypothetical model includes sixteen issues — some drawn from scholarly articles on the negotiations, others contributed by the Smartsettle team and friends. Party preferences were modelled on assumptions informed by publicly available information, much of it chronicled on this page (including a number considering nuclear diplomacy).

The schematic above illustrates the broader process, assuming a multiparty negotiation. Each party is a country or group of countries; the China and India groups might include other nuclear-armed countries and those aspiring to be. Each party would include representatives of varied interests — church, indigenous, women, youth, environmental, positive peace, and so on — though special interest groups could also negotiate separately, shown here as "Others."

The goal, a comprehensive peace treaty among all the parties, is defined by a Single Negotiating Framework (SNF), which may be built with the help of wise mediators plus AI. The SNF compiles every idea for peace into one document: it records what the parties already agree on and lays out the issues still to be worked out, without prescribing solutions. Each issue is assigned a negotiating range, and to keep everyone at the table, even the so-called non-negotiable issues are included.

This matters more than ever. Four years into the war, talks are no longer hypothetical — but they remain stuck at the level of a comprehensive settlement, even as humanitarian pauses, prisoner exchanges, and short holiday ceasefires come and go. That gap is exactly what a Single Negotiating Framework is designed to close.

In parallel, trust needs to be rebuilt. Ideas we've had include exchanging prisoners; embracing mediators such as Turkey or China, or bringing them to the table as parties; a Better-Late-Than-Never ceasefire as soon as possible; and letters to the UN and to the Pope. Confidence-building steps such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative — which operated in 2022–23 before Russia withdrew from it — show both the value and the fragility of such measures.

We live in a dangerous world, and the future of mankind depends on nations learning to settle their differences peacefully (Jack F. Matlock Jr.). Can they do that in Ukraine? Every day's delay brings more death and destruction — and it doesn't need to be that way.

This post was first written shortly after Russia's 2022 invasion. At first we imagined Russia and Ukraine could negotiate something better between themselves, but we soon concluded that durable peace would require more parties at the table. We keep hoping for a Better-Late-Than-Never Truce — we don't need to wait for Christmas.

If this gives you hope, help it travel. Share the two videos with anyone who shapes how peace gets negotiated — and tell us what you think at info@smartsettle.com.

Following are individuals, groups and organizations that have shown interest in Smartsettle's initiative. Their appearance here does not necessarily imply that we agree on everything, but we hold in common the overall goal of peace in Ukraine. Organizations are listed for identification only and this does not imply their endorsement.