Created on May 14, 2022; References below updated frequently.
Not everyone thinks negotiated peace in Ukraine is possible.
But every day’s delay brings more death and destruction. And it wouldn't need to be this way. The following schematic illustrates the Smartsettle process illustrating a three-party negotiation.
The goal of the process, a comprehensive peace treaty between all the parties, is determined by the Single Negotiating Framework, which in turn may be constructed with the assistance of wise mediators. Smartsettle has modelled a simplified version of the problem for two parties and simulated the final stage of the process depicted above. The results are documented with the following two videos (Watch the simulation from the Ukrainian POV first if you are new to Smartsettle Infinity).
Ukraine Point of View (14 min)
As presented live at the 21st International ODR Forum in Dublin
Russia Point of View (7.5 min)
Short version focusing on the simulation
These videos illustrate how the Smartsettle process can harvest and fairly distribute significant hidden value and quickly help collaborative parties overcome obstacles and lead them to an outcome that maximizes the satisfaction of all the parties - in this case, reach a solution leading to peaceful co-existence.
Our hypothetical negotiation model includes sixteen issues. Some were based on what we read in scholarly articles about the negotiations. Others were inspired by the Smartsettle team and friends (including a group of Rotarians). The party preferences were modelled based on assumptions informed by information found on the Internet such as the following (in descending chronological order).
What we are attempting to demonstrate is a process, not a particular outcome. More than half of the items below were added after this post was first created. The landscape is changing daily.
A Proposed Peace Plan to End the Russo-Ukrainian War (David T. Pyne, 18 Jun 2022)
Reaching a Just and Lasting Peace in Ukraine (Jeffrey Sachs, et al, 16 Jun 2022)
Building a Lasting Settlement for Ukraine (Doctorow & Petro, 11 Jun 2022)
Why Russian intellectuals are hardening support for war in Ukraine (Anatol Lieven, 6 Jun 2022)
Russia Says It’s Interested in Nuclear Arms Control Talks With the US (Dave DeCamp, 6 Jun 2022)
US Ambassador Says Russia, US Shouldn’t Shut Down Embassies (Dave DeCamp, 6 Jun 2022)
The Dialectics of Victory and Defeat (Boris Kagarlitsky, 3 Jun 2022)
Is There a Way Out of the Russia-Ukraine War? (Joseph Mercola, 3 Jun 2022)
France, Germany push Putin for resumed peace talks as Russia pummels Ukraine's east (The Associated Press, 28 May 2022)
How the Russia-Ukraine conflict may end (Daniel Mintum, 27 May 2022)
Zelenskyy rejects Kissinger plan to concede territories (Associated Press, 26 May 2022)
Türkiye 'most successful' in conflict mediation: Ukraine (TRTWORLD, 26 May 2022)
New York Times Repudiates Drive for ‘Decisive Military Victory’ in Ukraine, Calls for Peace Negotiations (John V. Walsh, 23 May 2022)
Russia says it will resume talks when Ukraine is 'constructive' (National Post, 23 May 2022)
Ukraine rejects concessions as Russia attacks in east (Humphries & Hunder, 22 May 2022)
Only diplomacy can end Ukraine war (Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 21 May 2022)
The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready (NY Times, 19 May 2022)
Experts Weigh In on Diplomatic Solutions in Ukraine (RM Staff, 18 May 2022)
Tony Blair explains what he thinks changed Putin (CNN, 16 May 2022)
The Leaders of France, Germany, and Italy Favor Negotiations to End Ukraine War (Dave DeCamp, 16 May 2022)
Biden must decide what ‘victory’ in Ukraine means — and if he’ll do what it takes to win it (John Bolton, 15 May 2022)
Russian ambassador hints some Kremlin officials want war to end (15 May 2022, Natalie O'Neill)
Decency Day (Steve Leeper, 14 May 2022)
We are now living in a totally new era (Henry Kissinger, 12 May 2022)
Joint appeal for ceasefire and negotiations (International Peace Bureau, 8/9 May 2022
Pope Francis: «I am ready to meet Putin in Moscow» (di Luciano Fontana, 3 May 2022)
There have been reversals of expectations on just about every side in Ukraine (Gwynne Dyer, 28 April 2022)
There is only one answer to the war in Ukraine: a peace deal (Jeffrey Sachs, 20 April 2022)
Sanctions-hit Abramovich is a surprise mediator in Russia-Ukraine talks (Stuart Williams, 5 April 2022)
The Path Out of Ukraine Is Reversing the Path In (Ted Snider, 16 March 2022)
Ukraine-Russia War, How a Peace-deal Could Be Agreed (Marc Weller, 15 March 2022)
An Off-Ramp for the War in Ukraine (Marc Weller, 14 March 2022)
Is a Ceasefire Agreement Possible? A Negotiation Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War (Bell & Wolf, March 12/22)
Ukraine: How to end the War (Marc Weller, 11 March 2022)
I’m a conflict mediator. This is a way out of the Ukraine crisis (9 Feb 2022, Gabrielle Rifkind)
On the edge of war (Dutta et al, 26 January 2022)
Minsk agreements (Wikipedia, 2022)
Saying “NO” to NATO - Options for Ukrainian Neutrality (Mike Sweeney, 12 August 2020)
U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreements at a Glance (Daryl Kimball, April 2020)
To settle the Ukraine crisis, start at the end (Henry Kissinger, 5 March 2014)
Truth and Reconciliation Commission, South Africa (Desmond Tutu, 2003)
UN Security Council Resolution 2202 (Full Text of Minsk I & II) (UN Security Council, 2015)