Negotiating Peace in Ukraine

Originally created on May 14, 2022 and updated occasionally. References below are updated frequently.

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Nov 10, 2022: Both sides are resisting negotiations (references below). But sooner or later, talks will begin, if disaster can be averted. The more that can be done now to prepare for a diplomatic solution the better. And preparations might increase the probability of a better outcome. That's what we want to do, scaling up our efforts documented below.

The first step is to compile all the possible ideas for peace into one comprehensive document. We call that a Single Negotiating Framework (SNF). The SNF documents everything that the parties already agree on and lays out those issues that are still to be worked out, without prescribing specific solutions. Instead, every issue is assigned a negotiating range. To keep everyone at the table, it's important to include even the so-called non-negotiable issues. Watch the videos linked below for further details on the Smartsettle process.

In parallel, trust needs to be rebuilt. Ideas are

  • strengthening the grain export agreement

  • exchanging prisoners

  • letters to the UN and to the Pope

  • embracing Turkey and/or China as mediators

  • a ceasefire over Christmas

On this last point, there should be a campaign to encourage everyone to read, watch, or listen to something about the inspiring1914 Christmas truce. Here are some references.

Smartsettle is encouraging all their staff to do this. How about the rest of you?

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The future of mankind will be determined by whether nations learn to settle their differences peacefully (Jack F. Matlock Jr., 17 Oct 2022). Can they do that in Ukraine? Not everyone thinks so.

Meanwhile, every day’s delay brings more death and destruction. But it wouldn't need to be this way.

The Smartsettle team and friends (including a group of Rotarians) have created a simulation illustrating a process that could lead to peace. Individuals and other groups that are cheering us on are listed at the bottom of this article.

The following schematic illustrates the Smartsettle process assuming a three-party negotiation.

The goal of the process, a comprehensive peace treaty between all the parties, is determined by the Single Negotiating Framework, which in turn may be constructed with the assistance of wise mediators. Smartsettle has modelled a simplified version of the problem for two parties and simulated the final stage of the process depicted above. The results are documented with the following two videos (Watch the simulation from the Ukrainian POV first if you are new to Smartsettle Infinity).

These videos illustrate how the Smartsettle process can harvest and fairly distribute significant hidden value and quickly help collaborative parties overcome obstacles and lead them to an outcome that maximizes the satisfaction of all the parties - in this case, reach a solution leading to peaceful co-existence.

Our hypothetical negotiation model includes sixteen issues. Some were based on what we read in scholarly articles about the negotiations. Others were inspired by the Smartsettle team and friends. The party preferences were modelled based on assumptions informed by information found on the Internet such as the following (in descending chronological order). What we are attempting to demonstrate is a process, not a particular outcome. Most of the items below were added after this post was first created. The landscape is changing daily. Could nuclear diplomacy be part of these negotiations (see shaded references below)?

Following are individuals, groups and organizations that have shown interest in Smartsettle's initiative. Their appearance here does not necessarily imply that we agree on everything but we hold in common the overall goal of peace in Ukraine. Organizations listed below are for identification purposes only, and do not imply their endorsement.

Rotary Clubs that have expressed interest in this project:

If you would like to be added to this list please send your request to